Discretionary Forex Trading - is it for Me?

Discretionary trading is very exciting if you ask me. Because the market is dynamic and never will you find the same market action two days running, so is the daily study on the market action and that's where discretionary trading comes in.

On the opposite side of discretionary trading, you'll find mechanical trading but this is outside the scope of this article so we won't be dealing with it for now.

In discretionary trading, we watch for quite a number of factors to come up with trading biases and decisions as a result of them. These factors include the time frame, the duration of our desired trade, news releases, candlestick patterns, global macroeconomics and so on and so forth. There's just way too many factors to be named here.

Now to answer you on the question of if discretionary trading is for you, you have to first understand yourself. When I say that, I mean if you are a disciplined person or are you pretty emotional. If you get emotional, then discretionary trading can be a very steep slope for you and you should look to mechanical forex trading systems.

It also helps if you are good with chess, poker or math for that matter when it comes to discretionary trading. Now take note that this isn't a proven theory, it's just one of my personal opinions and beliefs.

Go slow on yourself and take time to see if you enjoy studying charts and stuff, if so, you might have a thing or two for discretionary trading and stand a good chance succeeding at it.

Forex Basics

What is Forex?

"Forex" stands for foreign exchange; it's also known as FX. In a forex trade, you buy one currency while simultaneously selling another.

Currencies trade in pairs, like the Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).

Forex trading is used to speculate on the relative strength of one currency against another. The foreign exchange market is an over-the-counter market, which means that it is a decentralised market with no central exchange.

Who trades currencies, and why?

Daily turnover in the world's currencies comes from two sources:

• Foreign trade (5%). Companies buy and sell products in foreign countries, plus convert profits from foreign sales into domestic currency.
  
  
• Speculation for profit (95%).

Most traders focus on the biggest, most liquid currency pairs, known as "The Majors". These include US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. In fact, more than 85% of daily forex trading happens in the major currency pairs.

The world's most traded market, open 24 hours a day

With average daily turnover of US$3.2 trillion, forex is the most traded market in the world.
A true 24-hour market from Sunday 5 PM ET to Friday 5 PM ET, forex trading begins in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins, first to Tokyo, London, and New York.

Unlike other financial markets, investors can respond immediately to currency fluctuations, whenever they occur - day or night.

Example 1
An investor has a margin deposit with Saxo Bank of USD 100,000.
The investor expects the US dollar to rise against the Swiss franc and therefore decides to buy USD 2,000,000 - 2% of his maximum possible exposure at a 1% margin Forex gearing.
The Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5515-20. The investor buys USD at 1.5520.
Day 1: Buy USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5520 = Sell CHF 3,104,000.
Four days later, the dollar has actually risen to CHF 1.5745 and the investor decides to take his profit.
Upon his request, the Saxo Bank dealer quotes him 1.5745-50. The investor sells at 1.5745.
Day 5: Sell USD 2,000,000 vs. CHF 1.5745 = Buy CHF 3,149,000.
As the dollar side of the transaction involves a credit and a debit of USD 2,000,000, the investor's USD account will show no change. The CHF account will show a debit of CHF 3,104,000 and a credit of CHF 3,149,000. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the profit calculation.
This results in a profit of CHF 45,000 = approx. USD 28,600 = 28.6% profit on the deposit of USD 100,000.
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Example 2:
The investor follows the cross rate between the EUR and the Japanese yen. He believes that this market is headed for a fall. As he is not quite confident of this trade, he uses less of the leverage available on his deposit. He chooses to ask the dealer for a quote in EUR 1,000,000. This requires a margin of EUR 1,000,000 x 5% = EUR 10,000 = approx. USD 52,500 (EUR /USD 1.05).
The dealer quotes 112.05-10. The investor sells EUR at 112.05.
Day 1: Sell EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.05 = Buy JPY 112,050,000.
He protects his position with a stop-loss order to buy back the EUR at 112.60. Two days later, this stop is triggered as the EUR o strengthens short term in spite of the investor's expectations.
Day 3: Buy EUR 1,000,000 vs. JPY 112.60 = Sell JPY 112,600,000.
The EUR side involves a credit and a debit of EUR 1,000,000. Therefore, the EUR account shows no change. The JPY account is credited JPY 112.05m and debited JPY 112.6m for a loss of JPY 0.55m. Due to the simplicity of the example and the short time horizon of the trade, we have disregarded the interest rate swap that would marginally alter the loss calculation.
This results in a loss of JPY 0.55m = approx. USD 5,300 (USD/JPY 105) = 5.3% loss on the original deposit of USD 100,000.
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Example 3
The investor believes the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar. It is a long term view, so he takes a small position to allow for wider swings in the rate:
He asks Saxo Bank for a quote in USD 1,000,000 against the Canadian dollar. The dealer quotes 1.5390-95 and the investor sells USD at 1.5390. Selling USD is the equivalent of buying the Canadian dollar.
Day 1: Sell USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.5390. He swaps the position out for two months receiving a forward rate of CAD 1.5357 = Buy CAD 1,535,700 for Day 61 due to the interest rate differential.
After a month, the desired move has occurred. The investor buys back the US dollars at 1.4880. He has to swap the position forward for a month to match the original sale. The forward rate is agreed at 1.4865.
Day 31: Buy USD 1,000,000 vs. CAD 1.4865 = Sell CAD 1,486,500 for Day 61.
Day 61: The two trades are settled and the trades go off the books. The profit secured on Day 31 can be used for margin purposes before Day 61.
The USD account receives a credit and debit of USD 1,000,000 and shows no change on the account. The CAD account is credited CAD 1,535,700 and debited CAD 1,486,500 for a profit of CAD 49,200 = approx. USD 33,100 = profit of 33.1% on the original deposit of USD 100,000.